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Hurricane HILARY


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED AUG 24 2005
 
THE COLD WATER IS FINALLY TAKING ITS TOLL ON HILARY.  THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING AND BEGINNING TO SEPARATE FROM THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT BASED ON
AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS.  NOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS
DECOUPLING FROM THE CONVECTION...A MORE RAPID WEAKENING TREND
SHOULD BEGIN...AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

HILARY IS MOVING TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 330/7.  RECENT RUNS OF THE GFDL CAPTURED THIS
MORE NORTHWARD MOTION BETTER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND I HAVE
EDGED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TOWARD THE GFDL SOLUTION FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  AS HILARY WEAKENS...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES A GRADUAL
TURN BACK TO THE WEST UNDERNEATH A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF HILARY. 
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/2100Z 22.2N 117.9W    55 KT
 12HR VT     25/0600Z 22.9N 118.5W    45 KT
 24HR VT     25/1800Z 23.9N 119.7W    35 KT
 36HR VT     26/0600Z 24.8N 121.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     26/1800Z 25.4N 123.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     27/1800Z 26.0N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     28/1800Z 26.0N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     29/1800Z 26.0N 134.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 24-Aug-2005 20:40:13 UTC