ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM PDT THU AUG 11 2005 SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS DEVELOPED QUICKLY INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIS MORNING. A QUIKSCAT PASS BACK AT 01Z CLEARLY SHOWED 3/4 OF A CIRCULATION. A TRMM PASS AT 06Z SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND TO THE SOUTH OF AND VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER...WITH A BROADER BAND FARTHER OUT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 6Z WERE ONLY T1.0 FROM TAFB AND 1.5 FROM SAB. HOWEVER...SINCE THAT TIME DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY JUST OVER AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER...WHILE NIGHT-VIS IMAGES SHOW ENOUGH ROTATION TO CONCLUDE THAT A WELL-DEFINED CENTER EXISTS. THE PRESENT PATTERN WAS ASSESSED TO BE T2.0 BY TAFB AT 9Z...AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10. THE DEPRESSION IS ONLY ABOUT 650 NMI BEHIND FERNANDA...AND FERNANDA COULD HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION. A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND THIS SHOULD TAKE THE DEPRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE SHORT RUN. THE MEDIUM BAM WAS FOLLOWED FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS FORECAST FOR FERNANDA IS A FAIR BIT FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...SO I AM PRESUMING MORE OF AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES THAN INDICATED BY THE BAMM...WHICH IS BASED ON THE GFS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES THE DEPRESSION WELL TO THE RIGHT OF EITHER THE GFS OR THE BAM GUIDANCE. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS WERE DISCOUNTED BECAUSE OF INCONSISTENCY WITH CURRENT MOTION AND A POOR INITIALIZATION...RESPECTIVELY. GIVEN THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS NO PARTICULAR OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE TO SUPPORT IT...IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE TO DEAL WITH OUTFLOW FROM FERNANDA...AND IF IT TAKES THE FORECAST PATH...WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH COLD WATER WITHIN 72 HOURS. THUS ONLY LIMITED INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1100Z 13.2N 109.8W 25 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 13.6N 111.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 14.2N 112.7W 35 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 15.3N 114.7W 40 KT 48HR VT 13/0600Z 16.7N 116.4W 35 KT 72HR VT 14/0600Z 19.0N 118.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 15/0600Z 22.0N 120.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 11-Aug-2005 10:55:09 UTC