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Tropical Depression SEVEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM PDT THU AUG 11 2005
 
SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS DEVELOPED QUICKLY INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIS MORNING.  A QUIKSCAT PASS BACK AT 01Z CLEARLY SHOWED 3/4 OF A
CIRCULATION.  A TRMM PASS AT 06Z SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND
TO THE SOUTH OF AND VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER...WITH A BROADER BAND
FARTHER OUT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT
6Z WERE ONLY T1.0 FROM TAFB AND 1.5 FROM SAB.  HOWEVER...SINCE THAT
TIME DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY JUST OVER AND SOUTH OF
THE CENTER...WHILE NIGHT-VIS IMAGES SHOW ENOUGH ROTATION TO
CONCLUDE THAT A WELL-DEFINED CENTER EXISTS.  THE PRESENT PATTERN
WAS ASSESSED TO BE T2.0 BY TAFB AT 9Z...AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING
INITIATED AT THIS TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10.  THE DEPRESSION IS ONLY ABOUT 650 NMI
BEHIND FERNANDA...AND FERNANDA COULD HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE
FUTURE TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION.  A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE IS LOCATED
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND THIS SHOULD TAKE THE
DEPRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE SHORT RUN.  THE MEDIUM BAM
WAS FOLLOWED FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.  THE GFS
FORECAST FOR FERNANDA IS A FAIR BIT FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...SO I AM PRESUMING MORE OF AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO
CYCLONES THAN INDICATED BY THE BAMM...WHICH IS BASED ON THE GFS. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES THE DEPRESSION WELL TO THE RIGHT OF
EITHER THE GFS OR THE BAM GUIDANCE.  THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS
WERE DISCOUNTED BECAUSE OF INCONSISTENCY WITH CURRENT MOTION AND A
POOR INITIALIZATION...RESPECTIVELY.  GIVEN THAT THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS NO PARTICULAR OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE TO SUPPORT IT...IT IS
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE TO DEAL WITH OUTFLOW FROM
FERNANDA...AND IF IT TAKES THE FORECAST PATH...WILL HAVE TO DEAL
WITH COLD WATER WITHIN 72 HOURS.  THUS ONLY LIMITED INTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/1100Z 13.2N 109.8W    25 KT
 12HR VT     11/1800Z 13.6N 111.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     12/0600Z 14.2N 112.7W    35 KT
 36HR VT     12/1800Z 15.3N 114.7W    40 KT
 48HR VT     13/0600Z 16.7N 116.4W    35 KT
 72HR VT     14/0600Z 19.0N 118.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     15/0600Z 22.0N 120.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 11-Aug-2005 10:55:09 UTC