ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT MON AUG 15 2005 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE FURTHER DISSIPATION OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FERNANDA. A 0236 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 45 KNOT UNCONTAMINATED WINDS WHEN THE SYSTEM HAD MORE DEEP CONVECTION. THE DECREASE IN CONVECTION...AND ASSOCIATED SPINDOWN...WARRANTS BRINGING DOWN THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 40 KT...WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS. FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE HARSH DRY STABLE ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THEREFORE THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THIS ENVIRONMENT. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 250/6. THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST AS A SURFACE/LOW LEVEL HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE UKMET AND THE DEEP LAYERED BAM REMAIN OUTLIERS AND ARE CONSIDERABLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECASTER COBB/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 17.2N 132.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 16.8N 133.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 16.4N 135.4W 30 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 16.1N 137.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 15.8N 138.8W 25 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 15.0N 142.5W 25 KT 96HR VT 19/1200Z 14.5N 146.0W 25 KT 120HR VT 20/1200Z 14.5N 150.0W 25 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 15-Aug-2005 14:55:11 UTC