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Hurricane FERNANDA


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON AUG 15 2005
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE FURTHER DISSIPATION
OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FERNANDA. A 0236 UTC QUIKSCAT
PASS INDICATED 45 KNOT UNCONTAMINATED WINDS WHEN THE SYSTEM HAD
MORE DEEP CONVECTION. THE DECREASE IN CONVECTION...AND ASSOCIATED
SPINDOWN...WARRANTS BRINGING DOWN THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 40
KT...WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS. FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
HARSH DRY STABLE ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
THEREFORE THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING AS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THIS
ENVIRONMENT. 
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 250/6. THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE
FORECAST AS A SURFACE/LOW LEVEL HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE 
UKMET AND THE DEEP LAYERED BAM REMAIN OUTLIERS AND ARE CONSIDERABLY
TO THE RIGHT OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH A GENERAL
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
 
FORECASTER COBB/PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1500Z 17.2N 132.9W    40 KT
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 16.8N 133.9W    35 KT
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 16.4N 135.4W    30 KT
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 16.1N 137.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 15.8N 138.8W    25 KT
 72HR VT     18/1200Z 15.0N 142.5W    25 KT
 96HR VT     19/1200Z 14.5N 146.0W    25 KT
120HR VT     20/1200Z 14.5N 150.0W    25 KT
 
$$
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Page last modified: Monday, 15-Aug-2005 14:55:11 UTC