ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT AUG 13 2005 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE OUTER BANDS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. HOWEVER...DEEP CORE CONVECTION PERSISTS. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY DATA-T NUMBERS ARE DECREASING...65 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM AFWA. SAB REMAINS AT 77 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS A COMPROMISE OF THE TAFB AND SAB ESTIMATES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD...CONTINUED WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION AS UPPER WESTERLIES GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE RELATIVELY STABLE MARINE LAYER WHILE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE SHIPS MODEL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/8. FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A MORE WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONU AND GUNA CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0900Z 19.2N 126.4W 70 KT 12HR VT 13/1800Z 19.3N 127.6W 65 KT 24HR VT 14/0600Z 19.1N 129.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 14/1800Z 18.6N 130.6W 45 KT 48HR VT 15/0600Z 18.0N 132.3W 40 KT 72HR VT 16/0600Z 17.0N 135.7W 35 KT 96HR VT 17/0600Z 16.5N 139.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 18/0600Z 16.5N 143.0W 30 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 13-Aug-2005 09:10:11 UTC