Hurricane FERNANDA

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HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT AUG 13 2005
 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF
THE OUTER BANDS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.  
HOWEVER...DEEP CORE CONVECTION PERSISTS.  DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY DATA-T NUMBERS ARE DECREASING...65 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT
FROM AFWA.  SAB REMAINS AT 77 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT
IS A COMPROMISE OF THE TAFB AND SAB ESTIMATES.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24
HOURS.  AFTERWARD...CONTINUED WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION AS UPPER
WESTERLIES GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS
WITH THE RELATIVELY STABLE MARINE LAYER WHILE MOVING OVER
COOLER WATERS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE SHIPS MODEL.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/8. FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN A MORE WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED LOW TO MID LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS BASED ON THE CONU AND GUNA CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0900Z 19.2N 126.4W    70 KT
 12HR VT     13/1800Z 19.3N 127.6W    65 KT
 24HR VT     14/0600Z 19.1N 129.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     14/1800Z 18.6N 130.6W    45 KT
 48HR VT     15/0600Z 18.0N 132.3W    40 KT
 72HR VT     16/0600Z 17.0N 135.7W    35 KT
 96HR VT     17/0600Z 16.5N 139.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     18/0600Z 16.5N 143.0W    30 KT
 
 
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