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Tropical Storm EUGENE


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2005
 
BANDING FEATURES CONTINUED TO IMPROVE MARKEDLY DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON... BRINGING DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 18Z UP TO 3.5 AND
4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.  A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT EUGENE HAS REACHED
HURRICANE INTENSITY.  THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DECREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...HOWEVER...AND EUGENE HAS
ALREADY PASSED THE 26C SST ISOTHERM.  CONSEQUENTLY...NO ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
GFDL AND GLOBAL MODEL TRENDS...WHICH CALL FOR A FAIRLY RAPID
DISSIPATION.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A SLOWER DECAY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/15...AND OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS EVEN
MORE WEST THAN THAT.  EUGENE WAS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...BUT NOT THIS QUICKLY. SHOULD THIS
MOTION BE MAINTAINED THEN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL NOT REACH
BAJA...BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE MOTION FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS
TO BE CERTAIN THAT THE TURN HAS ACTUALLY OCCURRED. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS STILL BASICALLY NORTHWEST FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY IS CLOSE TO THIS GUIDANCE AND THE
PRECEDING FORECAST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/2100Z 20.0N 109.7W    60 KT
 12HR VT     20/0600Z 21.2N 111.3W    55 KT
 24HR VT     20/1800Z 22.2N 113.3W    40 KT
 36HR VT     21/0600Z 22.6N 115.2W    30 KT
 48HR VT     21/1800Z 22.9N 117.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     22/1800Z 23.0N 121.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     23/1800Z 23.0N 125.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 19-Jul-2005 20:40:07 UTC