ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2005 THE CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE HAS PERSISTED DURING THE DAY...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 2.5. ANOTHER REPORT FROM SHIP 9VVN NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER...THIS TIME IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND AGAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...INDICATED 30 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT WINDS ARE STRONGER BENEATH THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. TRMM AND SSMI IMAGERY NEAR 16Z SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF BEATRIZ IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 295/11. THE TRACK FORECAST IS FASTER THAN AND IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS. ON THIS REVISED TRACK...BEATRIZ SHOULD REACH COOLER WATERS A BIT SOONER AND WILL PROBABLY REACH PEAK INTENSITY IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE SPEED OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE GFDL...SO THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM GFDL WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY. SINCE SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DEVELOP A NEW SYSTEM FARTHER EAST AND EVENTUALLY BRING A WEAKENING BEATRIZ TO THE SOUTH...IT IS RATHER UNCERTAIN HOW FAR WEST THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW WILL TRAVEL. FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 15.5N 106.4W 40 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 16.2N 108.1W 50 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 17.0N 110.2W 55 KT 36HR VT 24/0600Z 17.4N 112.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 24/1800Z 17.7N 113.7W 40 KT 72HR VT 25/1800Z 18.0N 115.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 26/1800Z 18.0N 117.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 27/1800Z 18.0N 118.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 22-Jun-2005 20:55:03 UTC