Tropical Storm BEATRIZ

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TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2005
 
THE CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE HAS PERSISTED DURING
THE DAY...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 2.5.  ANOTHER REPORT FROM
SHIP 9VVN NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER...THIS TIME IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT AND AGAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...INDICATED
30 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT BASED ON THE
ASSUMPTION THAT WINDS ARE STRONGER BENEATH THE CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER.

TRMM AND SSMI IMAGERY NEAR 16Z SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF BEATRIZ IS
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 295/11.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS FASTER
THAN AND IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THROUGH
48 HOURS.  ON THIS REVISED TRACK...BEATRIZ SHOULD REACH COOLER
WATERS A BIT SOONER AND WILL PROBABLY REACH PEAK INTENSITY IN ABOUT
24 HOURS.  THE SPEED OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THAT OF THE GFDL...SO THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM GFDL WAS FOLLOWED
CLOSELY.  SINCE SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DEVELOP A NEW SYSTEM
FARTHER EAST AND EVENTUALLY BRING A WEAKENING BEATRIZ TO THE
SOUTH...IT IS RATHER UNCERTAIN HOW FAR WEST THE EVENTUAL REMNANT
LOW WILL TRAVEL.

 
FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/2100Z 15.5N 106.4W    40 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 16.2N 108.1W    50 KT
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 17.0N 110.2W    55 KT
 36HR VT     24/0600Z 17.4N 112.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     24/1800Z 17.7N 113.7W    40 KT
 72HR VT     25/1800Z 18.0N 115.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     26/1800Z 18.0N 117.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     27/1800Z 18.0N 118.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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