Tropical Storm ADRIAN

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TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU MAY 19 2005
 
THE INNER CORE OF ADRIAN IS MORE ORGANIZED THAN SIX HOURS AGO. DEEP
CONVECTION IS WRAPPING MORE COMPLETELY AROUND THE CENTER... AND
DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS ARE NOW 3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB.
ADDITIONALLY...A 1238Z SSMI PASS REVEALS INNER CORE BANDING. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS. SOME FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA...AS
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 30 CELSIUS AND VERTICAL SHEAR
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HALT INTENSIFICATION.

ADRIAN IS NOW MOVING DIRECTLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...045/8.  MAINLY
DUE TO THE RECENT MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH ABOUT 48
HOURS.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING OTHERWISE REMAINS ESSENTIALLY
THE SAME.  A MID- TO UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY ACCELERATE ADRIAN TO THE NORTHEAST.  IF IT
REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER CROSSING CENTRAL AMERICA...IT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AFTER MOVING NORTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES ON DAYS 4 AND 5.

AGAIN IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ADRIAN IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

 
FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/1500Z 12.5N  90.9W    55 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 13.4N  89.9W    60 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 14.6N  88.3W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 16.0N  86.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 17.6N  84.4W    25 KT
 72HR VT     22/1200Z 21.0N  79.0W    25 KT
 96HR VT     23/1200Z 25.0N  72.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     24/1200Z 29.0N  64.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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