Tropical Storm ADRIAN

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TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU MAY 19 2005
 
ADRIAN IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR OR OVER
THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION...BUT OVERALL THE PATTERN HAS BECOME
LESS SYMMETRIC THAN IT WAS 6 HOURS AGO. MICROWAVE PASSES AT 0031Z
AND 0440Z ARE ALSO SUGGESTIVE OF A LITTLE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER
THE CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA
ARE 45...45...AND 65 KT...RESPECTIVLY.  I WILL HOLD THE INITIAL
INTENSITY AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 00Z
SUGGESTS THAT THE WIND FIELD OF ADRIAN IS VERY SMALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/6.  THE GENERAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS
UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.  OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE
LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF ADRIAN WILL BE REINFORCED BY
A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES...AND THIS
SHOULD STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS MAINLY WITH THE
SPEED OF THE CYCLONE.  THE GFS HOLDS ADRIAN NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO BEFORE ACCELERATING IT
NORTHEASTWARD...WHILE THE GFDL AND NOGAPS ARE CONSIDERABLY FASTER
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST COUPLE
OF DAYS. 

THE GFDL MODEL INTENSITY FORECASTS FOR ADRIAN HAVE BEEN EXCESSIVE.
THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET THUS FAR...
SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. WITH THE
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR EXPECTED TO INCREASE...I DO NOT EXPECT A GREAT
DEAL OF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...ALTHOUGH ADRIAN COULD CERTAINLY
BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY LANDFALL.  ADRIAN'S LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WILL BE SEVERELY DISRUPTED WHEN IT CROSSES OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND WILL MOST LIKELY DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF HONDURAS.  ONLY IF THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS THROUGHOUT ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND WOULD IT RETAIN THE
NAME ADRIAN IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.  WHATEVER EMERGES INTO THE
CARRIBEAN WILL COME UNDER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND SHOULD LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN INCREASINGLY
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ADRIAN IS HEAVY
RAIN...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY
DEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER THE HIGHLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL AMERICA.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0900Z 11.6N  91.6W    50 KT
 12HR VT     19/1800Z 12.2N  90.8W    55 KT
 24HR VT     20/0600Z 13.2N  89.3W    60 KT
 36HR VT     20/1800Z 14.5N  87.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     21/0600Z 16.0N  85.5W    25 KT
 72HR VT     22/0600Z 19.5N  80.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     23/0600Z 23.0N  74.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     24/0600Z 27.5N  66.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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