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Tropical Storm ZETA


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST WED JAN 04 2006

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION INDICATES THAT ZETA IS NOT AS STRONG AS
IT WAS YESTERDAY BUT STILL HAS A SMALL BUT VIGOROUS CIRCULATION.
THERE IS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THERE ARE
NO SIGNS OF STRONG SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. BASED
ON THE LATEST T-NUMBERS AND QUIKSCAT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KNOTS. PULSES OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ZETA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE UNFAVORABLE
WINDS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HOWEVER...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.      

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/6. ZETA IS BEING
STEERED BY A LOW TO MID-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTH. AS AN APPROACHING
STRONG WINTER LOW PASSES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED. IT APPEARS THAT THIS WINTER
LOW WILL PASS BY VERY FAST AND WILL NOT INDUCE RECURVATURE. ZETA AS
A WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD THEN MOVE BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-NORTHWEST UNTIL DISSIPATION. AS YOU CAN SEE...I RAN OUT
THINGS TO SAY.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/1500Z 21.9N  44.0W    50 KT
 12HR VT     05/0000Z 22.0N  44.9W    45 KT
 24HR VT     05/1200Z 23.0N  46.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     06/0000Z 24.5N  47.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     06/1200Z 26.0N  48.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     07/1200Z 28.0N  51.0W    25 KT
 96HR VT     08/1200Z 30.0N  54.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     09/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 04-Jan-2006 14:40:15 UTC