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Tropical Storm ZETA


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST FRI DEC 30 2005
 
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 18Z WERE T3.0...OR 45 KT...FROM TAFB AND
SAB...WHILE AFWA GAVE ZETA A SUBTROPICAL T2.5 CLASSIFICATION. 
BASED ON THESE CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
45 KT.  THE WELL-DEFINED BANDING STRUCTURES SEEN THIS MORNING HAVE
ALREADY BECOME RAGGED...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
WESTERLIES BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION.  WHILE THERE COULD BE BRIEF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
DURING TONIGHT'S CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM...STRONG WESTERLIES ARE NOT FAR
FROM THE CYCLONE AND SHOULD OVERTAKE ZETA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/6. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST REASONING. ZETA IS STILL MOVING AROUND A MID-LEVEL LOW TO
ITS SOUTHWEST...BUT THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE
WESTERLIES MOVE IN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. ASSUMING ZETA
WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN SHEAR...IT SHOULD THEN TURN
WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND
OF THE MEDIUM AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS...AND THE 12Z GFDL.

THE HISTORICAL RECORD SHOWS THAT ALICE OFFICIALLY BECAME A TROPICAL
STORM AT 1200 UTC 30 DECEMBER 1954.  MY WORKING BEST TRACK FOR ZETA
CURRENTLY SHOWS STORM STATUS BEGINNING AT 1200 UTC THIS MORNING...
WHICH TENTATIVELY ALLOWS ZETA TO TIE ALICE FOR THE LATEST FORMING
TROPICAL STORM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.  HOWEVER...A CASE CAN BE MADE
FOR CONSIDERING ZETA A TROPICAL STORM AS EARLY AS 0600 UTC THIS
MORNING.  WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE FINAL ANALYSIS OF ZETA'S TRACK
TO SEE EXACTLY WHERE ITS FORMATION FALLS RELATIVE TO ALICE'S.

ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE SEEMS TO WANT TO DEVELOP TROPICAL STORMS AD
NAUSEAM...THE CALENDAR WILL SHORTLY PUT AN END TO THE USE OF THE
GREEK ALPHABET TO NAME THEM.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/2100Z 25.3N  37.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     31/0600Z 25.6N  38.0W    45 KT
 24HR VT     31/1800Z 25.8N  39.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     01/0600Z 26.0N  40.4W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     01/1800Z 26.0N  42.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 30-Dec-2005 20:40:17 UTC