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Hurricane EPSILON


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST WED DEC 07 2005
 
EPSILON IS STILL A BORDERLINE HURRICANE WITH A VERY RAGGED EYE...
AND OUTFLOW THAT REMAINS MOSTLY UNDISTURBED BY THE STRONG WINDS ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD. HI-RES QUIKSCAT
DATA AT 08Z CONTAINED A FEW 60 KT VECTORS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL.
AT 12-KM SPACING THESE VALUES WERE PROBABLY SLIGHT UNDERESTIMATES
OF THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED... ALTHOUGH THERE IS ALWAYS THE QUESTION
OF WHETHER ENOUGH OF THE SIGNAL IS COMING FROM THE OCEAN SURFACE.
THE QUIKSCAT DATA DO SEEM REPRESENTATIVE WHEN CONSIDERING THAT 12Z
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 65 KT... AND AMSU ESTIMATES FROM
09Z AVERAGED TO ABOUT 65 KT. EPSILON CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD RIGHT
ALONG THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...
ABOUT 235/13.
 
THE SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE AS LONG AS EPSILON PRODUCES
SOME DEEP CONVECTION... ALTHOUGH IT WILL PROBABLY BEND A LITTLE TO
THE SOUTH AND SLOW DOWN AS NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR LIKELY BEGINS TO
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS.  THE SHEAR WILL
PROBABLY NOT WEAKEN THE CIRCULATION OF EPSILON QUITE AS FAST AS THE
GFS AND UKMET ARE SUGGESTING... BUT EVEN THE OFTEN SHEAR-RESISTANT
GFDL FORECASTS WEAKENING TO LESS THAN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY 36
HOURS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ANTICIPATES EPSILON
COULD STAY AT OR NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS... FOLLOWED BY A RAPID DECLINE DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVERHEAD ADVANCES EASTWARD.  SINCE
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL INTENSITY SOLUTION...
WHICH IS ONLY A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE... THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE GFDL IN ANTICIPATING A
GRADUALLY SLOWING SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OF EPSILON UNTIL IT IS
SHEARED APART.  EPSILON IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE BY 48 HOURS INTO
A REMNANT LOW... WHICH SHOULD THEREAFTER BE ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL
ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
BE PASSING TO ITS NORTH.
 
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/1500Z 29.1N  37.9W    65 KT
 12HR VT     08/0000Z 27.8N  38.8W    60 KT
 24HR VT     08/1200Z 26.4N  39.7W    45 KT
 36HR VT     09/0000Z 25.3N  40.3W    30 KT
 48HR VT     09/1200Z 24.6N  40.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     10/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 07-Dec-2005 14:55:20 UTC