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Hurricane EPSILON


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST TUE DEC 06 2005
 
EPSILON HAS SINCE LATE THIS MORNING BEEN MOVING DECIDEDLY TOWARD THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 210/8 WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND WEST.  THIS MOTION IS KEEPING EPSILON
BENEATH THE AXIS OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH... SHELTERING THE
CORE OF THE HURRICANE FROM WIND SHEAR.  EVEN THOUGH THE OUTFLOW
PATTERN IS GRADUALLY ELONGATING... THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CORE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO HAVE CHANGED TODAY.  THE RAGGED EYE IS STILL CLOSED
AND CONVECTION WRAPS ESSENTIALLY ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER WITH
TOPS AS COLD AS ABOUT -60C.  THE INTENSITY IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...
AS DVORAK ESTIMATES STILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 65 KT... BUT I PREFER TO
STAY ON THE HIGH END UNTIL THE SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF A TRUE
WEAKENING TREND.

A GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE MODELS TO
CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THAT TIME.  THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
EPSILON IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO ADVANCE
EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SO EPSILON CANNOT STAY
BENEATH IT FOREVER.  ABOUT 24 MORE HOURS IS MORE LIKE IT.  STRONG
WIND SHEAR INCOMING FROM THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD
INEVITABLY WEAKEN EPSILON.  WHILE THE DECLINE OF EPSILON WILL
PROBABLY BE GRADUAL AT BEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO... ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SHEAR-INDUCED WEAKENING WILL BEGIN
IN EARNEST SHORTLY THEREAFTER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN
SHIPS AND GFDL IN KEEPING EPSILON A TROPICAL STORM FOR LESS THAN 48
HOURS.  ASSUMING THAT SCENARIO UNFOLDS... WHAT IS LEFT OF EPSILON
IS NOW FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL THE MODELS TO BECOME INVOLVED IN SOME
WAY WITH A FRONTAL ZONE IN ABOUT THREE DAYS... AND THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.  THE FRONT WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF EPSILON IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  I HESITATE TO MENTION
THAT MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST THIS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM... AFTER
ABSORBING EPSILON... TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH OF 30N ON DAY 5 TO
THE WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.  HOWEVER THAT SYSTEM DOES OR DOES
NOT EVOLVE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES EPSILON WILL
ALREADY HAVE MET ITS DEMISE.
 
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/2100Z 31.1N  34.5W    65 KT
 12HR VT     07/0600Z 29.9N  35.6W    60 KT
 24HR VT     07/1800Z 28.4N  37.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     08/0600Z 27.1N  38.2W    40 KT
 48HR VT     08/1800Z 26.5N  38.7W    30 KT
 72HR VT     09/1800Z 26.0N  37.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     10/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 06-Dec-2005 21:10:15 UTC