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Hurricane EPSILON


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST MON DEC 05 2005
 
SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
YESTERDAY. THE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL HAS
CONTINUED TO FLUCTUATE AND IT IS CURRENTLY SURROUNDING THE LARGE EYE
AGAIN. OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FOR THE PAST 3 HOURS HAVE BEEN
OSCILLATING AROUND 4.5 SUGGESTING WINDS OF 75 KNOTS BUT THE
SUBJECTIVE NUMBERS ARE 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE OR 65 KNOTS. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET IN BETWEEN AT 70 KNOTS. EPSILON HAS IGNORED THE
COLD SSTS AS WELL AS THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND HAS
MAINTAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH. I AM AM NOT GOING TO SPECULATE ANY
MORE ON THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF EPSILON AND WILL JUST FOLLOW SHIPS
AND GFDL WHICH ARE THE BEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE. SHIPS MODEL
GRADUALLY WEAKENS THE CYCLONE AND THE GFDL KEEPS IT AS A HURRICANE
FOR NEARLY 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THEN A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS. BOTH OF THE MODELS EITHER
WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE EPSILON BEYOND 3 DAYS AND SO THE THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
 
EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS.
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING CURRENTS AND GLOBAL MODELS
INSIST ON DEVELOPING A MID-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTH AND A CUT OFF
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF EPSILON. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE EPSILON
ON A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK IN DAY OR SO. BY THEN...EPSILON IS EXPECTED
TO BE A WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE OR A REMNANT LOW.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/1500Z 33.6N  35.1W    70 KT
 12HR VT     06/0000Z 33.3N  34.0W    65 KT
 24HR VT     06/1200Z 32.0N  34.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     07/0000Z 30.5N  35.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     07/1200Z 29.0N  37.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     08/1200Z 26.0N  40.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     09/1200Z 23.0N  43.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     10/1200Z 19.5N  47.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Monday, 05-Dec-2005 14:40:17 UTC