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Hurricane EPSILON


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SAT DEC 03 2005
 
EPSILON HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AGAINST ALL ODDS. THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS REMARKABLY WELL-ORGANIZED FOR A HURRICANE AT HIGH
LATITUDE IN DECEMBER...EMBEDDED IN A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
WIND ENVIRONMENT AND MOVING OVER 21-22 DEGREE CELSIUS WATER.
SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS THE BEST SO FAR AND IN FACT...DATA-T
NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 ON THE DVORAK
SCALE...SUPPORTING 77 KNOTS. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS
MOVING OVER COOL WATER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ONLY
INCREASED TO 70 KNOTS. EPSILON CAN NOT MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
INTENSITY MUCH LONGER SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A LARGE MASS OF
DRY AIR AND STRONG WESTERLY WINDS NEARING THE HURRICANE. A GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS INDICATED AND ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES
TO SHOW EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN A DAY OR TWO...MOST LIKELY A
GRADUAL SPIN DOWN OVER COLD WATERS WILL OCCUR. 

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS...IT APPEARS THAT
EPSILON IS RUNNING AWAY FROM THE APPROACHING HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE
UK MODEL HAS NOW JOINED THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE AND UNANIMOUSLY...
ALL MODELS TURN EPSILON TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST...AFTER A SMALL PERIOD
OF SLOW MOTION BETWEEN A BLOCKING HIGH TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING
LOW TO THE SOUTH. THIS MAKES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENT IN TURNING THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER...BY THEN
THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE AND EPSILON
MOST LIKELY BE JUST A REMNANT LOW.  
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/2100Z 34.5N  43.1W    70 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 34.5N  41.2W    60 KT
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 34.5N  38.5W    50 KT
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 34.5N  36.5W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     05/1800Z 34.0N  34.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     06/1800Z 32.5N  33.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     07/1800Z 30.0N  34.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     08/1800Z 28.0N  36.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Saturday, 03-Dec-2005 20:40:17 UTC