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Hurricane EPSILON


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SAT DEC 03 2005

EPSILON CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT AN EYE...AND IS STILL MAINTAINING
MODEST AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION...WITH ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW PRIMARILY
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DOWN SLIGHTLY
BUT SINCE THERE HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM...IT IS BEING KEPT AT HURRICANE STATUS FOR
THIS ADVISORY.  THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE LESS
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SOMEWHAT.  SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS PER THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. 
HOWEVER...SINCE THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE HEADED ON A LOWER LATITUDE
TRACK THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...THE PREDICTION OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION HAS BEEN DELAYED SLIGHTLY.  INDEED...IF EPSILON BEGINS
TO ACQUIRE A SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION...IT COULD
PERSIST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LONGER THAN SHOWN IN THIS FORECAST.

THE CYCLONE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE RIGHT AND IS NOW MOVING JUST NORTH
OF DUE EAST...075/08.  EARLIER IT WAS THOUGHT THAT THE FLOW AHEAD
OF A SERIES OF MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHS...MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WOULD TAKE EPSILON NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. 
HOWEVER NOW MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE U.K.
MET OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL...INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL STEERING
FLOW AHEAD OF THESE TROUGHS WILL DEFLECT NORTHWARD AND NOT PICK UP
THE CYCLONE.  THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS DEPICT THE SYSTEM TURNING TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC.  ONLY THE U.K. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGHS PICKING
UP EPSILON AND CARRYING IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC.  ALTHOUGH THE UKMET IS A VERY GOOD TRACK FORECAST
MODEL...IT IS ADVISABLE TO BE CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
BUT DOES NOT YET ADMIT A SIZABLE SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD
COMPONENT OF MOTION LATER IN THE PERIOD.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0900Z 34.6N  45.7W    65 KT
 12HR VT     03/1800Z 35.0N  44.0W    60 KT
 24HR VT     04/0600Z 35.4N  41.4W    55 KT
 36HR VT     04/1800Z 35.7N  38.8W    50 KT
 48HR VT     05/0600Z 35.9N  36.2W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     06/0600Z 36.0N  33.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     07/0600Z 35.5N  32.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     08/0600Z 35.0N  32.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Saturday, 03-Dec-2005 08:40:21 UTC