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Hurricane EPSILON


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  13...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST FRI DEC 02 2005

CORRECTED DATES OF AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES
 
DESPITE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY
...EPSILON HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A SOLID
CONVECTIVE BAND NOW WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND THE CYCLONE CENTER
...WHICH HAS PRODUCED A WELL-DEFINED 25 NMI DIAMETER EYE. THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS ALSO CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE T4.0/65 FROM TAFB AND SAB... AND A 02/0920Z
NESDIS/CIRA AMSU PRESSSURE ESTIMATE WAS 986 MB.. AND 02/0920Z
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS WAS 985 MB/66 KT. BASED ON THIS
INFORMATION... EPSILON HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE. THIS
IS NOT UNPRECEDENTED FOR A HURRICANE TO FORM THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON OR OVER THIS PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. HURRICANE NOEL IN
NOVEMBER 2001 FORMED NEAR 38N 50W...ABOUT 250 NMI NORTH OF EPSILON.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/12 KT. SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS FROM ALL
THREE AGENCIES HAVE BEEN COMING IN ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK
...SO LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED
TO BECOME MORE CONVERGENT ON A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72
HOURS. AFTERWARDS... HOWEVER... THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON
HOW THEY HANDLE EPSILON AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE GFDL AND GFDN
TAKE EPSILON MORE NORTHWARD... WHEREAS THE GFS... UKMET... AND
NOGAPS MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE MORE EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD BY 120
HOURS DUE TO COMPLEX INTERACTION AND/OR MERGER WITH ANOTHER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE AZORES. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND
REMAINS A LITTLE NORTH OF AND SLOWER THAN THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
SHIP DEDM LOCATED ABOUT 160 NMI EAST OF EPSILON AT 12Z REPORTED A
SST OF 24C/75F... WHICH INDICATES THAT EPSILON HAS BEEN MOVING
ALONG A NARROW RIDGE OF WARMER SSTS. THIS LIKELY EXPLAINS TO A
LARGE DEGREE WHY EPSILON HAS BEEN ABLE TO IMPROVE ITS CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... BUOYS NORTHEAST OF THE
CYCLONE INDICATE SSTS BELOW 70F ARE LESS THAN 200 NMI AWAY. AS
SUCH... EPSILON SHOULD BEGIN TO STEADILY WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS AND PROBABLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 36 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/1500Z 33.7N  48.2W    65 KT
 12HR VT     03/0000Z 34.6N  46.9W    60 KT
 24HR VT     03/1200Z 35.8N  45.0W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     04/0000Z 37.0N  43.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     04/1200Z 38.3N  40.7W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     05/1200Z 40.8N  36.2W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     06/1200Z 43.0N  32.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     07/1200Z 44.5N  29.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Dec-2005 15:40:14 UTC