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Tropical Storm EPSILON


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST FRI DEC 02 2005
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS MADE SOMEWHAT OF A COMEBACK DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE BAND NORTH OF THE CENTER WHERE
TOPS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN COLDER THAN -60C.  DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS AT
06Z CORRESPONDINGLY CAME UP A LITTLE BUT THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KT.  SINCE THE CONVECTIVE BANDING IS A LITTLE
MORE CONSOLIDATED THAN SIX HOURS AGO AND IS WRAPPING MORE AROUND
THE CENTER... EPSILON DOES NOT APPEAR WEAKER AND THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS KEPT ON THE HIGH END OF THE RANGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
AT 55 KT.  AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE
EPSILON BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.  EVEN THOUGH EPSILON WILL BE OVER
SUB-22C WATERS WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS... THE FORECAST TIMING OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION REMAINS 36-48 HOURS SINCE EPSILON WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN SEPARATED FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS UNTIL THEN... EVEN IF THE FASTEST AND
NORTHERNMOST MODEL TRACK VERIFIES.
 
EPSILON IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AT 050/9
KT.  A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED ARE ANTICIPATED BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FOR ABOUT THE
NEXT 48 HOURS... AS EPSILON WILL BE PUSHED AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH THAT IS WELL TO ITS WEST AND ABOUT TO ADVANCE OFF THE U.S.
EAST COAST.  MODEL FORECASTS BEYOND THAT TIME HANDLE EXTRATROPICAL
EPSILON IN VERY DIFFERENT WAYS.  IF THE GFS AND GFDL ARE
CORRECT...THE STORM WILL BE SWEPT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AND MERGE
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN LESS THAN FIVE DAYS.  HOWEVER... IF THE
UKMET AND NOGAPS SOLUTIONS ARE RIGHT... EPSILON MIGHT EVEN DIVE
SOUTHWARD ON DAY FIVE AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE TO ITS WEST. 
THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE... BUT DUE TO THE
MODEL SPREAD THE TRACK FORECAST AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0900Z 32.8N  49.4W    55 KT
 12HR VT     02/1800Z 33.8N  48.0W    50 KT
 24HR VT     03/0600Z 35.2N  46.1W    50 KT
 36HR VT     03/1800Z 36.5N  44.2W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     04/0600Z 37.8N  42.2W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     05/0600Z 40.5N  37.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     06/0600Z 42.5N  33.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     07/0600Z 44.5N  30.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Dec-2005 09:10:25 UTC