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Tropical Storm EPSILON


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER   5...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST WED NOV 30 2005

COREECTED INITIAL INTENSITY FROM 50 KT TO 55 KT
 
EPSILON HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING WITH SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATING CONVECTION HAS NOW WRAPPED MORE THAN 75 PERCENT
AROUND THE CENTER... WITH A HINT OF A RAGGED BANDING EYE FEATURE
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...AND
AND AFWA ARE 45 KT AND 35 KT...RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER... A 30/0913Z
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED WHAT APPEARS TO BE VALID 55 KT WIND
VECTORS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...WHICH IS THE INTENSITY USED FOR
THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE MOTION IS 260/08. STRONG RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF EPSILON IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THE CYCLONE IN A WOBBLY WESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED
AS EPSILON MOVES INTO A LARGE SURFACE HIGH LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA
AND THE U.S. EAST COAST. BY 36 HOURS... EPSILON IS FORECAST TO
SLOW/STALL AS THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AHEAD
OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST
COAST BY 48 HOURS. THE INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW SHOULD ACCELERATE EPSILON TO THE NORTHEAST OR
EAST-NORTHEAST OVER MUCH COLDER WATER... WITH EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION OCCURRING BY 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE NHC MODEL
CONSENSUS DUE TO A NORTHWARD BIAS BY THE GFS MODEL AFTER 72 HOURS.
 
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AROUND THE CENTER... DRY MID-LEVEL
AIR HAS ALSO BEEN NOTED WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER IN WATER VAPOR AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. GIVEN THAT EPSILON IS LOCATED OVER
MARGINAL SSTS OF 23-24C AND THAT WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 30 KT BY 24 HOURS... ONLY SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BEFORE SLOW WEAKENING OCCURS. HOWEVER
...EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL STORM
SYSTEM AFTER 48 HOURS AS IT GETS A SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY FROM
THE APPROACHING U.S. DEEP-LAYER TROUGH.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/1500Z 30.7N  53.9W    55 KT
 12HR VT     01/0000Z 30.9N  54.3W    60 KT
 24HR VT     01/1200Z 31.6N  54.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     02/0000Z 32.4N  52.8W    55 KT
 48HR VT     02/1200Z 33.5N  51.0W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     03/1200Z 35.5N  47.2W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     04/1200Z 38.0N  42.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     05/1200Z 40.0N  37.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 30-Nov-2005 15:40:16 UTC