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Tropical Storm EPSILON


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST WED NOV 30 2005

THE CENTER OF EPSILON IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM LOOKS A LITTLE MORE TROPICAL ON SATELLITE
AND IN FACT...THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME MORE DETACHED FROM A FRONTAL
CLOUD BAND LOCATED TO THE EAST. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45
KNOTS AND BASED ON QUIKSCAT AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS THE TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. BECAUSE EPSILON IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LIGHT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF AN UPPER-LOW...SOME
STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES NEARING
THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND MOST LIKELY EPSILON WILL THEN
BEGIN TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.

EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS...
STEERED BY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...AND THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY. EPSILON SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND THEN TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY SHARPLY TURN THE
CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN A ABOUT A DAY OR SO. 

FORECASTER AVILA
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0900Z 31.2N  52.5W    45 KT
 12HR VT     30/1800Z 31.0N  53.5W    45 KT
 24HR VT     01/0600Z 31.5N  54.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     01/1800Z 32.5N  53.0W    55 KT
 48HR VT     02/0600Z 33.0N  51.0W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     03/0600Z 35.5N  47.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     04/0600Z 38.0N  42.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     05/0600Z 40.5N  37.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 30-Nov-2005 08:40:17 UTC