Tropical Storm EPSILON

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TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2005
 
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE INNER CORE
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND THE EARLIER RAGGED EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS
DISAPPEARED. HOWEVER... OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE
IMPROVED AND SOME WEAK ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTER. A CONSENSUS SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT WAS NOTED BY THE THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES.
HOWEVER... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED A LITTLE
HIGHER AT 45 KT BASED ON A 29/1700Z PRESSURE OF 999.0 MB FROM BUOY
41543 LOCATED ABOUT 120 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER... AND SEVERAL
SHIP REPORTS OF 30 KT AT 200-250 NMI FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 270/07 KT... ALTHOUGH EPSILON
HAS MADE A SLIGHT WEST-SOUTHWARD WOBBLE DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A
WEAK LOW LOCATED ABOUT 180 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE
SECONDARY LOW IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO
SHORTLY RESUME A WESTWARD MOTION. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS
REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT EPSILON WILL MOVE SLOWLY
WESTWARD FOR THE 24 HOURS...AND THEN TURN SLOWLY NORTHWARD IN 36-48
HOURS AS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOP OFF THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. BY 72 HOURS AND BEYOND... THE DEEP-
LAYER FLOW EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BECOMES WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY... WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT OUT EPSILON TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER MUCH COLDER WATER... CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO
TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
THE WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF EPSILON HAS BEEN DISRUPTING THE
INFLOW OF LOW-LEVEL WARM UNSTABLE AIR. HOWEVER... AS THE LOW SHEARS
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST... THE INFLOW INTO THE CENTER OF EPSILON
SHOULD RESUME AND CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS INDICATE EPSILON IS
LOCATED OVER 24.5-25C SSTS... WHICH IS ABOUT 1C WARMER THAN
INDICATED BY THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. SINCE EPSILON IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER 24-25C SSTS FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS... SOME MODEST
STRENGTHENING SEEMS REAOSNABLE... ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS CLOSE THE SHIPS MODEL AND REMAINS HIGHER THAN THE GFDL
MODEL... WHICH ONLY FORECASTS EPSILON TO REACH 42 KT IN 12 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/2100Z 31.4N  51.2W    45 KT
 12HR VT     30/0600Z 31.5N  52.5W    50 KT
 24HR VT     30/1800Z 31.7N  53.1W    55 KT
 36HR VT     01/0600Z 32.4N  53.1W    60 KT
 48HR VT     01/1800Z 32.8N  52.2W    60 KT
 72HR VT     02/1800Z 33.6N  49.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     03/1800Z 35.5N  44.5W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     04/1800Z 40.0N  40.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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