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Tropical Storm DELTA


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2005
 
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MADE A SLIGHT COMEBACK WITH SOME DEEP
CONVECTION WITH TOPS TO -70C HAVING DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS DECREASED
AND BECOME MORE RAGGED LOOKING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
DECREASED TO 50 KT BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY OF
T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB... AND AN INCREASING AMSU PRESSURE
ESTIMATE OF 983 MB FROM BOTH UW-CIMSS AND NESDIS-CIRA AT 25/1629Z.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 230/03 KT...ALTHOUGH THE 6-HR MOTION HAS BEEN
230/05. THE VARIOUS GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST
THAT DELTA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION...
DESPITE THE SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION REMAINS THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL AND NOW THE UKMET MODEL...
WHICH TAKE DELTA SLOWLY CLOCKWISE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH 72
HOURS... AND THEN TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWEST AND WESTWARD AFTER
THAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
AND THE BAMS MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS... AND REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE
NHC MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO DELTA EXPECTED TO BECOME A MORE
VERTICALLY SHALLOW TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSSIBLY INTERACT WITH AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP A FEW HUNDRED MILES
TO THE WEST BY 72 HOURS. AS A RESULT... THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE 96- AND 120-HR FORECAST POSITIONS.

DELTA HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER 78-79F SST WATER...
WHICH HAS LIKELY HELPED RE-INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. HOWEVER... STRONG NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND VERY
DRY MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION
FROM PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER. THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE DELTA BY 96 HOURS... AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
REFLECTS SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND UNDERNEATH INCREASING NORTHWEST TO
WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KT BY 72 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/2100Z 23.0N  40.0W    50 KT
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 23.4N  39.8W    45 KT
 24HR VT     26/1800Z 24.3N  38.9W    45 KT
 36HR VT     27/0600Z 25.5N  38.0W    40 KT
 48HR VT     27/1800Z 27.3N  36.8W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     28/1800Z 30.4N  34.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     29/1800Z 30.5N  29.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     30/1800Z 30.0N  25.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 25-Nov-2005 20:40:14 UTC