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Tropical Storm DELTA


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST WED NOV 23 2005

SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES...FROM TRMM...SSMI...AND SSMI/S...INDICATE
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS SOME EASTWARD TILT WITH HEIGHT.  THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION.  DVORAK ESTIMATES AND QUIKSCAT DATA SUPPORT A CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 50 KT.  DELTA IS STILL IN A STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT...AND THE LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT DOES NOT DECREASE THE
SHEAR AS MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WAS SHOWN IN THE
PREVIOUS RUN.  NONETHELESS...SINCE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER WARMER
WATERS AND AT LEAST SOME RELAXATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IS
LIKELY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING AS IN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...DELTA
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER COOLER WATERS AND IT SHOULD
BE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...
SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF...SHOW A NEW CYCLONE FORMING TO THE WEST
OF DELTA AND BECOMING THE DOMINANT SYSTEM IN 3-5 DAYS.

THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  DELTA IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND
IT IS APPARENTLY BEING STEERED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD BY THE FLOW ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS LARGER GYRE.  DELTA SHOULD STOP MOVING
SOUTHWARD SOON...AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GYRE. 
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK INDICATED BY THE
GFDL AND GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE FORMER MODEL SHOWING DELTA
TURNING AROUND AND MOVING QUITE A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN SHOWN BY
THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE GFDL AND THE GLOBAL MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SHOWN IN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 2114 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS
WHICH INDICATED SOME CONTRACTION OF THE WIND FIELD...WHICH IS MORE
TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0300Z 25.3N  40.3W    50 KT
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 24.4N  39.9W    55 KT
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 24.2N  39.5W    60 KT
 36HR VT     25/1200Z 25.0N  39.5W    60 KT
 48HR VT     26/0000Z 26.0N  39.6W    55 KT
 72HR VT     27/0000Z 28.5N  40.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     28/0000Z 31.0N  40.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     29/0000Z 35.0N  41.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 24-Nov-2005 02:40:25 UTC