Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression TWENTY-SEVEN


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005

THERE IS NO REAL EVIDENCE THAT A SURFACE CENTER STILL EXISTS.  NO
WESTERLY COMPONENT OF LOW CLOUD MOTION CAN BE DISCERNED ON
NIGHTTIME INFRARED CHANNEL IMAGES...AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT
AMBIGUITY PLOT WAS NOT AT ALL CONVINCING.  WE WILL WAIT FOR VISIBLE
IMAGERY AND ADDITIONAL DATA TO CONFIRM THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS
DISSIPATED.  IT APPEARS THAT THE DEPRESSION...OR ITS REMNANT...IS
ABOUT TO BE DRAWN INTO A MORE DOMINANT LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  INDEED...THIS LATTER SYSTEM IS THE
MORE IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING FEATURE AT THIS TIME.  ADDITIONALLY...THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN DISTURBANCE MAY
DISRUPT THE SMALLER AND WEAKER UPPER ANTICYCLONE UNDER WHICH THE
DEPRESSION WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE. IF THIS IS THE CASE...THEN THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WOULD NOT BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION...OR REGENERATION.  

SATELLITE FIXES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING
GIVEN THE SEEMING ABSENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  INITIAL
MOTION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 
EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PUSH THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.  THE REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0900Z 14.8N  71.4W    25 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 14.8N  73.2W    25 KT
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 14.8N  75.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 16-Nov-2005 08:40:15 UTC