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Hurricane BETA


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING BETA HAVE FOUND MAXIMUM 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF
77 KT JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED
FROM THE AIRCRAFT DROPSONDES IS 979 MB...AND A 10 N MI WIDE EYE IS
PRESENT.  THE EYE HAS BEEN INTERMITTENTLY SEEN IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE EYE AT
THIS TIME.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 80 KT BASED ON A COMBINATION
OF AIRCRAFT DATA AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

BETA HAS SWUNG TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST 6-12 HR AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW 280/4.  AS PRESSURES CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HR UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER
LAND.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSTION AND MOTION.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE GFS...GFDL...AND GFDN WANT TO TAKE BETA WEST OF SOUTH INTO
THE PACIFIC.  GIVEN THAT THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST TO TURN
BETA WESTWARD...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THESE
MODELS...BEING JUST NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY SOMEWHAT ASYMMETRIC...THE
OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE HURRICANE IS IMPROVING.  WITH
THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND THE SMALL EYE...THERE IS STILL A GOOD
CHANCE OF A BURST OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE
GFDL MAKES BETA A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 12-18 HR...AND IT SEEMS LIKELY
THAT WINDS WILL REACH 95-105 KT BEFORE LANDFALL.  BETA SHOULD
WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF HONDURAS IN 72-96 HR.
 
REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF BETA AT LANDFALL...THIS TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL BRING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...PRIMARILY NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...CAUSING CONSIDERABLE
DAMAGE...AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  IN
ADDITION...SOME OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BETA
MAY GET DRAWN INTO A DEVELOPING WINTER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/2100Z 13.8N  82.3W    80 KT
 12HR VT     30/0600Z 13.9N  83.0W    90 KT
 24HR VT     30/1800Z 14.0N  84.1W    80 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     31/0600Z 14.0N  85.3W    40 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     31/1800Z 14.2N  86.4W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     01/1800Z 14.5N  88.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Saturday, 29-Oct-2005 20:40:14 UTC