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Hurricane BETA


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005
 
AN 1140Z TRMM OVERPASS SHOWS THAT BETA HAS A PINHOLE EYE UNDERNEATH
ITS CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...WHICH HAS CONVECTIVE TOPS OF -80C JUST
EAST OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM
TAFB...65 KT FROM SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA.  BASED ON THESE AND ON
THE EYE SIZE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 320/3...AND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BETA
MAY BE MOVING A LITTLE LEFT OF THAT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
YESTERDAY HAS MOVED INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND RAWINSONDE DATA SHOWING RISING PRESSURES BEHIND THE TROUGH. 
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS TREND TO CONTINUE FOR 24-36
HR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE BETA TO TURN MORE WESTWARD ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE NARROW BUT STRENGTHENING RIDGE.  WHILE THERE CONTINUES
TO BE SPREAD BETWEEN THE MORE NORTHWARD UKMET AND THE MORE
SOUTHWARD GFS...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT BETA WILL MAKE
LANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HR IN EASTERN OR NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.  THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...CALLING
FOR A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN DURING THE FIRST 24 HR AND A WESTWARD
MOTION ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS THEREAFTER.  THE NEW TRACK IS
JUST NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND A BIT SLOWER.
 
ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT THE
EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HAS DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND THE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL IS SHOWING
A 62 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25 KT OR MORE STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
24 HR.  CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS INCREASED BY THE PRESENCE
OF THE PINHOLE EYE.  BOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL BRING BETA TO 95 KT BY
LANDFALL...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THAT.  HOWEVER...
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT BETA WILL GET STRONGER THAN FORECAST
AND MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.  AFTER LANDFALL...BETA
SHOULD WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA.
 
REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF BETA AT LANDFALL...THIS TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL BRING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...PRIMARILY NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...CAUSING CONSIDERABLE
DAMAGE...AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. IN
ADDITION...SOME OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BETA
MAY GET DRAWN INTO A DEVELOPING WINTER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/1500Z 13.9N  81.7W    75 KT
 12HR VT     30/0000Z 14.2N  82.4W    85 KT
 24HR VT     30/1200Z 14.4N  83.3W    95 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     31/0000Z 14.4N  84.4W    50 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     31/1200Z 14.4N  85.7W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     01/1200Z 14.5N  87.5W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     02/1200Z 14.5N  89.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     03/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Saturday, 29-Oct-2005 14:40:14 UTC