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Tropical Storm ALPHA


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
 
THE SURFACE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH ALPHA REMAINS A BIT ELUSIVE
SINCE EMERGING FROM HISPANIOLA EARLIER TODAY BUT IT IS ASSUMED TO BE
WITHIN THE PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.
THIS YIELDS A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE NORTHWARD MOTION OF
360/18...CONSISTENT WITH THE ANTICIPATED ACCELERATION TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF WILMA.  GIVEN THE RESILIENCE OF THIS
CONVECTIVE AREA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS AND IS
SUPPORTED BY A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS AND SHIP ZCDG8 WHICH RECENTLY
REPORTED 29 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CHALLENGING.  ON ONE
HAND...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THE
CIRCULATION IS NOW COMPLETELY OVER WATER.  ON THE OTHER
HAND...GLOBAL MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BE RAPIDLY
OVERTAKEN BY AND WILL MERGE WITH THE EXPANDING CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THIS
INTERACTIONS WILL BEGIN SOONER RATHER THAN LATER AND KEEPS ALPHA AS
A DEPRESSION UNTIL IT BECOMES COMPLETELY ABSORBED BY THE LARGER
CIRCULATION OF WILMA IN 24-36 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0300Z 22.5N  72.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 25.1N  72.8W    30 KT
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 29.4N  70.9W    30 KT...BECOMING ABSORBED
 36HR VT     25/1200Z...ABSORBED BY WILMA
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 24-Oct-2005 02:40:15 UTC