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Tropical Storm ALPHA


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
 
IT IS HARD TO DETERMINE IF THERE WAS A SURFACE CIRCULATION OR NOT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION AFTER CROSSING HISPANIOLA AND I WAS
TEMPTED TO DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...A NEW AREA OF CIRCULAR
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF HAITI NEAR THE POSSIBLE
CENTER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS. WE ARE
FOLLOWING THE CENTER OF THE CLOUD MASS WHICH IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS IN THE ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF WILMA.  BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE CIRCULATION IS
BACK OVER WATER...A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AND ALPHA
COULD TEMPORARILY REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...MOST
LIKELY THE DEPRESSION WILL INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND BECOME
ABSORBED BY THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF WILMA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND
THEN DISSIPATE.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/2100Z 20.6N  72.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 22.8N  73.6W    30 KT
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 26.0N  73.5W    30 KT
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 31.5N  71.0W    30 KT...BECOMING ABSORBED
 48HR VT     25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Sunday, 23-Oct-2005 20:55:14 UTC