Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm ALPHA


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005
 
HALF OF AN EYEWALL-LIKE FEATURE WAS VISIBLE ON THE SAN JUAN RADAR AS
ALPHA WAS MOVING OUT OF RANGE A COUPLE HOURS AGO...WITH SIMILAR
ROTATION BRIEFLY OBSERVED WITHIN THE VERY COLD TOPS OF ITS CORE
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE NO HIGHER
THAN 35 KT AT 00Z...THE RADAR SIGNATURE SUGGESTS THAT ALPHA COULD
HAVE A VERY SMALL CORE OF STRONGER WINDS AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
IS BEING RAISED TO 45 KT. A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
IN THE 6 OR SO HOURS BEFORE ALPHA REACHES HISPANIOLA. ALPHA'S SMALL
CIRCULATION SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINS OF
HISPANIOLA...AND IS IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL DISSIPATE AS
IT CROSSES THE ISLAND. ASSUMING THAT IT SURVIVES INTO THE
ATLANTIC...ALPHA WILL FIND ITSELF IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS
IT IS OVERTAKEN BY THE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE WILMA IN ABOUT 36
HOURS...AND EVEN THOUGH THE WIND SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
THE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY HAVE DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE
CIRCULATION TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/10.  ALPHA IS NEARING THE SOUTHWEST EDGE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AS THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE
WILMA APPROACHES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALPHA IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWARD AND ACCELERATE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT AND SLOWER THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE ASSUMPTION
THAT THE SURFACE AND UPPER CIRCULATIONS MAY DECOUPLE DURING THE
INTERACTION WITH THE TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.
  
ALPHA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL/FLOODING EVENT
OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH A STRONG LIKLIHOOD OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD-SLIDES.  
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0300Z 17.7N  70.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 18.9N  71.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 22.0N  72.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 26.0N  73.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     25/0000Z...ABSORBED WITHIN CIRCULATION OF WILMA
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Sunday, 23-Oct-2005 02:40:13 UTC