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Hurricane WILMA


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE WILMA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005
 
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITY FOR WILMA.  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WSR-88D
RADAR DATA...AND FLIGHT LEVEL DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT...INDICATE WINDS AT 850 MB OF ABOUT 120-125 KT IN
THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL.  SINCE THESE WINDS HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...IT IS PROBABLY SAFE TO NOW
ASSUME THESE WINDS CORRESPOND TO ABOUT 100 KT AT THE OCEAN SURFACE. 
IT IS NOT YET CLEAR IF THIS RESTRENGTHENING WAS SIMPLY DUE TO
REDUCTION OF FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE ONCE THE EYEWALL EMERGED OVER
WATER...OR IF THE WINDS IN THE EYEWALL STRENGTHENED SOME TIME AFTER
REACHING THE ATLANTIC...PERHAPS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE GULF
STREAM.  BOTH FACTORS LIKELY PLAYED A ROLE.  THE INTENSITY
FORECASTS VALID AT 12 AND 24 HOURS HAVE BEEN INCREASED A LITTLE. 
NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK OR RADII FORECASTS HAVE BEEN MADE.
 
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/1830Z 28.1N  78.8W   100 KT
 12HR VT     25/0000Z 30.3N  75.8W    95 KT
 24HR VT     25/1200Z 36.1N  68.9W    75 KT
 36HR VT     26/0000Z 42.1N  61.6W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     26/1200Z 44.9N  55.7W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     27/1200Z 46.5N  44.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     28/1200Z 47.5N  36.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     29/1200Z 49.0N  25.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 24-Oct-2005 19:25:13 UTC