Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane WILMA


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005
 
AS ANTICIPATED...WILMA IS GOING THROUGH THE WEAKENING PHASE OF AN
EYEWALL CYCLE. THIS IS BASED ON MICROWAVE DATA AND OBSERVATIONS
FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHICH REPORTED EXCELLENT RADAR
PRESENTATION OF CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS OF 4 AND 40 N MI IN DIAMETER
RESPECTIVELY. THE PLANE ALSO OBSERVED TWO MAXIMUM WIND BANDS...ONE
WITH WINDS OF 121 KNOTS...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 903 MB MEASURED
BY A SONDE...BUT WITH 23 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. THE PRESSURE COULD
THEN BE A FEW MILLIBARS LOWER. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT AS SPECTACULAR AS IT WAS 12 TO 18 HOURS
AGO AND IN FACT...THE EYE IS OBSCURED AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWN TO 130 KNOTS. THIS MAY BE AN OVERESTIMATE
SINCE THE MAXIMUM WINDS REPORTED SO FAR ARE 121 KNOTS. HOWEVER...WE
ARE ASSUMING THAT THE PLANE HAS NOT SAMPLED THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION.
 
WE DO NOT KNOW EXACTLY WHEN AND IF THE STRENGTHENING PHASE OF THE
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL BEGIN. SINCE IT IS ASSUMED THAT IT
WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...RE-INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE THE
FORMATION OF A LARGE EYE LATER TODAY. THEREAFTER...A PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THERE WILL BE INCREASING WIND SHEAR. WILMA SHOULD THEN BEGIN A
STEADY WEAKENING TREND.
 
THE EXPECTED NORTHWEST TURN HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET AND THE AVERAGE
MOTION OF WILMA IS STILL 295 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE
NORTHWEST MOTION SHOULD BEGIN SOON AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL UNITED STATES ADVANCES RAPIDLY EASTWARD.  THIS WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS OVER THE GULF OE MEXICO AND WILMA
SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH TOWARD THE WEAKNESS. THE
SHORT-WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND BRING THE WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH
ENOUGH TO CARRY WILMA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  BEFORE THE WESTERLIES
BECOME ESTABLISHED...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK.
WILMA WILL LIKELY MEANDER FOR A DAY OR SO OVER NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
OR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BEFORE TAKING OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IN
A TYPICAL RECURVATURE PATTERN.
 
TRACK GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE USUAL VARIABILITY BUT THE OVERALL
MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP WILMA MOVING VERY SLOWLY NEAR OR OVER
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND THEN SHARPLY TURNING
THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. IT IS FAIR TO SAY THAT BY DAY
FIVE...WILMA SHOULD BEGIN TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
BY JUDGING THE EXPANSION OF THE WIND FIELD AND THE FRONTAL LIKE
MOISTURE PATTERN IN MODELS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0900Z 18.3N  85.0W   130 KT
 12HR VT     20/1800Z 18.9N  85.8W   135 KT
 24HR VT     21/0600Z 20.0N  86.5W   145 KT
 36HR VT     21/1800Z 21.0N  87.0W   145 KT
 48HR VT     22/0600Z 22.0N  86.5W   125 KT
 72HR VT     23/0600Z 24.0N  84.5W   110 KT
 96HR VT     24/0600Z 27.0N  80.0W    80 KT
120HR VT     25/0600Z 37.1N  70.0W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 20-Oct-2005 08:40:14 UTC