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Hurricane WILMA


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005
 
THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL REACH WILMA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE THEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION...ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED A BIT.  THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE WILL BE HELD AT 150 KT
PENDING FURTHER RECONNAISSANCE DATA.  AT THIS POINT...THE BEST
ESTIMATE FOR THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS A BLEND OF THE 881 MB
EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE AIRCRAFT AND THE 884 MB FROM AN EYE DROP THAT
SPLASHED IN 23 KT WINDS.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A DISTINCT OUTER
WIND MAXIMUM AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A FORMATIVE OUTER EYEWALL. 
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES WILL HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE
INTENSITY OF WILMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THESE ARE
IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME AND ARE NOT REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
ONCE WILMA ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS IDEAL AS THEY ARE NOW AND SOME WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT WILMA WILL STILL BE A
FORMIDABLE HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES FLORIDA.  AFTER THAT...AS
WILMA INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE UPPER-LOW...THE WIND FIELD OF
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND CONSIDERABLY...AND EVEN GLOBAL MODELS
ARE SHOWING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM AT 5 DAYS.
 
PRONOUNCED TROCHOIDAL OSCILLATIONS ARE BEING SUPERIMPOSED ON A MEAN
MOTION OF 300/6.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
TRACK THROUGH 96 HOURS.  HOWEVER...RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND
NOGAPS ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A THREAT TO NEW ENGLAND. 
IN THIS SCENARIO...WILMA BECOMES CAPTURED BY A LARGE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN
FOUR DAYS.  THE ECMWF AND IN PARTICULAR THE UKMET...BOTH OLDER
RUNS...DO NOT YET INDICATE THIS.  THE FIVE-DAY OFFICIAL FORECAST
POINT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT IS STILL MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND THAN
THE GFDL...GFS...AND NOGAPS GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/1500Z 17.4N  83.2W   150 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 18.0N  84.0W   150 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 19.1N  85.1W   150 KT
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 20.4N  85.9W   145 KT
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 21.5N  86.2W   135 KT
 72HR VT     22/1200Z 24.0N  84.5W   115 KT
 96HR VT     23/1200Z 30.0N  77.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     24/1200Z 39.0N  69.0W    80 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 19-Oct-2005 15:10:13 UTC