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Tropical Storm WILMA


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005
 
THE DEVELOPMENT TREND THAT WE HAVE BEEN ANTICIPATING FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS IS UNDERWAY.  DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING MAINTAINED VERY NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WITH BANDING FEATURES
DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T3.0/45 KT...AND A QUIKSCAT
PASS AT 12Z SUGGESTS WINDS ARE ALSO 40-45 KT.  THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 40 KT...AND I EXPECT
STRONGER WINDS WHEN THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARRIVES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING AND THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.

WILMA DROVE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT BUT A WESTWARD COMPONENT SEEMS TO
HAVE RETURNED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 235/4. 
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN EXTRAORDINARILY INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN AND THERE IS PRESENTLY A HUGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.  WHAT IS
MOST PUZZLING IS THAT THE MODELS THAT BEST ANTICIPATED THE
SOUTHWARD MOTION OVERNIGHT...THE GFDL AND THE GFS...ARE WAY OUT
THERE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A TRACK
OVER WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 
THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF TAKE WILMA INTO VARIOUS PARTS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THERE ARE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT
OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THESE
MODELS THAT IS AFFECTING THE ABILITY OF WILMA TO CONNECT WITH THE
WESTERLIES NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  WHILE IT IS
TEMPTING TO ADJUST THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT BASED ON THE RECENT
CHANGES WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS...THE FACT THAT THE 6Z RUNS OF
BOTH MODELS WERE INITIALIZED A BIT TOO FAR NORTH MAY MEAN THAT THEY
ARE TOO FAST WITH THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO.  FOR NOW...I HAVE MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  CLEARLY...CONFIDENCE AT
THE LONGER RANGES IS UNUSUALLY LOW.  WHILE THE SOUTHWARD MOTION
OVERNIGHT NOW REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
HONDURAS...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN TRACK AS WELL AS THE SIZE OF
THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE...IT IS A LITTLE PREMATURE TO LOWER THE WATCH
AND WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/1500Z 16.3N  80.0W    40 KT
 12HR VT     18/0000Z 16.2N  80.6W    50 KT
 24HR VT     18/1200Z 16.3N  81.5W    60 KT
 36HR VT     19/0000Z 16.5N  82.6W    70 KT
 48HR VT     19/1200Z 17.0N  83.7W    80 KT
 72HR VT     20/1200Z 18.5N  85.5W    90 KT
 96HR VT     21/1200Z 20.0N  86.5W    95 KT
120HR VT     22/1200Z 22.5N  87.5W    95 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Monday, 17-Oct-2005 14:40:13 UTC