Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane VINCE


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2005
 
THE BURST OF CONVECTION THAT BEGAN ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER AT ABOUT THE TIME OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DID
NOT LAST LONG... AND THE CONVECTION IS JUST ABOUT GONE.  SSTS NEAR
22C AND PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A STEADY
DECLINE.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT... WHICH LEANS
WEAKER THAN A BLEND OF THE 18Z DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS...
2.5/3.0... DUE TO THE NEARLY COMPLETE ABSENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION. 
EVEN WITHOUT THE CONVECTION... THE CENTRAL PRESSURE MIGHT STILL BE
JUST LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 35 KT.  VINCE PASSED DIRECTLY OVER BUOY
44743... OPERATED BY THE EUROPEAN GROUP ON OCEAN STATIONS... WHICH
MEASURED A PRESSURE NEAR 997 MB AT 14Z... WHICH IS A LITTLE LOWER
THAN HAD BEEN ESTIMATED AT THE TIME.  HOWEVER... VINCE IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SHORTLY AND NOT LONG AFTER THAT
DEGENERATE INTO A REMANT LOW LATER TONIGHT.

VINCE IS RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 22 KT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE HEADING
AND SPEED ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE LANDFALL OF THE REMNANT LOW. 
IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL DISSIPATE OVER
LAND BEFORE THE FRONT CAN ABSORB IT.
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/2100Z 35.9N  11.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     11/0600Z 37.5N   8.0W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     11/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 10-Oct-2005 20:55:14 UTC