Hurricane VINCE

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TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2005
 
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED AS NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR HAS BLOWN NEARLY ALL OF THE CONVECTION OFF TO THE EAST. SOME
NEW CONVECTION HAS RESUMED ON THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CENTER... BUT VINCE IS CLEARLY ON A FAST DECLINE.  THE
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT... MORE IN LINE WITH THE DVORAK DATA
T NUMBERS THAN THE MUCH HIGHER CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES... DUE
TO THE GREATLY DIMINISHED CONVECTION.  IN ADDITION TO THE SHEAR...
VINCE IS OVER SSTS NEAR 22C... SO IT WILL LIKELY DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW IN ROUGHLY 12 HOURS.

VINCE IS MOVING QUICKLY ON A HEADING JUST NORTH OF DUE EAST... 080
DEGREES AT ABOUT 18 KT... WHICH IS A BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK.  THE CIRCULATION CENTER WILL PROBABLY BE PULLED A
LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD BY THE APPROACHING FRONT UNTIL THE EVENTUAL
REMNANT LOW DISSIPATES OR IS ABSORBED BY THE FRONT.
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/1500Z 34.9N  14.2W    40 KT
 12HR VT     11/0000Z 36.4N  11.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     11/1200Z...ABSORBED
 
 
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