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Tropical Storm VINCE


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005
 
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF NON-TROPICAL ORIGIN THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY
STATIONARY IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... IN BETWEEN THE AZORES AND
THE CANARY ISLANDS... HAS BEEN ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO.  WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM IS NOW A
TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL STORM IS SOMEWHAT OF A SUBJECTIVE
DETERMINATION.  EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS SITUATED OVER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 23-24 CELSIUS AND IS BENEATH A LARGE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... IT NOW HAS SEVERAL CHARACTERISTICS THAT
WARRANT CLASSIFICATION AS TROPICAL STORM VINCE.  THE CYCLONE IS
ISOLATED AND IS QUITE SYMMETRIC WITH A SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM
WINDS... PERHAPS 20-25 N MI... AND WHILE IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LARGER ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE... THE INNER CORE
OF CONVECTION ONLY HAS A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 100 N MI.  UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOT APPARENT ON SATELLITE ANIMATIONS... BUT A
07Z AMSU OVERPASS REVEALS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WARM CORE.  CYCLONE
PHASE SPACE ANALYSES FROM FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY INDICATE THIS
SYSTEM IS SYMMETRIC AND NOT VERY FAR ON THE COLD CORE SIDE OF THE
SPECTRUM.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS SUPPORTED BY A 0640Z QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS AND BY SUBTROPICAL SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND
SAB OF 3.0 BASED ON THE HEBERT-POTEAT TECHNIQUE.  SINCE SUBTROPICAL
CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE ON THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PAST DAY OR
SO... VINCE COULD EASILY BE DEEMED TO HAVE BECOME A SUBTROPICAL
STORM YESTERDAY.  VINCE HAS BEEN CUT OFF FROM THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS... BUT NOW SEEMS TO BE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT.  A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ALONG THIS SAME HEADING IS EXPECTED UNTIL VINCE MERGES WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/1500Z 34.0N  19.2W    45 KT
 12HR VT     10/0000Z 34.7N  18.3W    45 KT
 24HR VT     10/1200Z 36.3N  16.1W    45 KT
 36HR VT     11/0000Z 39.1N  13.6W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     11/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Sunday, 09-Oct-2005 15:10:12 UTC