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Hurricane STAN


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2005
 
MANY UNEXPECTED CHANGES HAVE OCCURRED WITH STAN OVERNIGHT.  AN AIR
FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN IN THE SYSTEM FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS... AND THE CENTER FIXES INDICATE STAN HAS BEEN MOVING
PERSISTENTLY SOUTHWESTWARD OR 235/10.  THIS IS MUCH FASTER THAN ANY
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WERE FORECASTING... AND THERE DOES NOT NOW
APPEAR TO BE ANY OBVIOUS REASON WHY THIS MOTION WILL NOT CONTINUE. 
UNLESS STAN SLOWS DOWN OR CHANGES DIRECTION VERY SOON... IT WILL
CROSS THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER THIS
MORNING.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST ANTICIPATES THE CENTER TO
BE ONSHORE IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS... AND TO CONTINUE INLAND INTO THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO WHERE IT SHOULD DISSIPATE IN LESS
THAN 36 HOURS.  EVEN THOUGH STAN WILL PROBABLY BE MOVING FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ONCE IT IS INLAND... IT COULD STILL
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF
COMPLEX TERRAIN.

HOW STRONG STAN HAS BECOME THIS MORNING IS A BIT SPECULATIVE... BUT
MOST OF THE AVAILABLE DATA SUPPORT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 65 KT
AND MAKING STAN A HURRICANE. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT... AND AS I TYPE WAS JUST MEASURED AT 979 MB.
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING IN RESPONSE AND
ARE VERY CLOSE TO SUPPORTING 65 KT SURFACE WINDS. THE AIRCRAFT
RADAR DEPICTS WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL BANDING THAT ALMOST CLASSIFIES AS
AN EYEWALL. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS ALSO BECOME VERY
IMPRESSIVE... WITH AN EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION DURING
THE NIGHT AND CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -90C. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 65 KT. WHILE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
STAN INLAND AT 12 HOURS WITH A 65 KT INTENSITY... IT COULD BE
STRONGER AT LANDFALL. PREPARATIONS MUST BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0900Z 18.8N  94.4W    65 KT
 12HR VT     04/1800Z 18.4N  95.4W    65 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     05/0600Z 18.2N  96.2W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 04-Oct-2005 09:10:12 UTC