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Tropical Storm STAN


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2005
 
ALTHOUGH THE PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS...FROM 700 MB DUE TO AIRSPACE
RESTRICTIONS...WERE ONLY 41 KT...DROPSONDES IN THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF NEAR 50 KT...WHICH
WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. STAN HAS BEEN MAINTAINING DEEP COLD
CONVECTION SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THUS FAR THE CONVECTION
HAS BEEN RESTRICTED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
STILL APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING...WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL NOW TAKING STAN UP TO 92 KT PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE GFDL
CONTINUES TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS THIS
GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WIND FIELDS FROM
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SOME DECOUPLING OF THE MID
AND LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS COULD OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF
LANDFALL...AND IF THIS OCCURS I WOULD EXPECT SOME LAST MINUTE
WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THIS IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER.
 
EARLIER IN THE DAY STAN MOVED LITTLE...WITH THE CENTER LAGGING
PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT AIRCRAFT FIX SUGGESTS THAT A GENERALLY
WESTWARD MOTION HAS RESUMED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS BASED ON A
LONGER-TERM AVERAGE AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE 255/6.  MODEL GUIDANCE
GENERALLY AGREES THAT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NORTH
OF STAN.  THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS BRACKETED BY THE UKMET AND
NOGAPS...WHICH TAKE STAN WESTWARD TO A LANDFALL IN 36 TO 48
HOURS...AND THE GFDL...WHICH TAKES STAN SOUTHWESTWARD WITH A
LANDFALL IN 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES...CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFS...AND
A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/2100Z 20.0N  92.6W    50 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 19.7N  93.5W    60 KT
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 19.4N  94.2W    70 KT
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 19.2N  95.0W    80 KT
 48HR VT     05/1800Z 19.1N  95.8W    80 KT
 72HR VT     06/1800Z 19.0N  97.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 03-Oct-2005 20:55:11 UTC