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Tropical Storm STAN


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2005
 
THE CENTER OF STAN EMERGED OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AT ABOUT 0430Z.  SHORTLY THEREAFTER AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE FLEW INTO THE CENTER AND MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 1003 MB... THEN 1002 MB ON A MORE RECENT PENETRATION.  MAXIMUM
850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 43 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER... IN THE BAND OF CONVECTION EMANATING OFFSHORE FROM THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE PENINSULA.  THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO MIX THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE USING
THE 80 PERCENT REDUCTION...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 35 KT AT THE
SURFACE. ADDITIONALLY...CONVECTION HAS BEGUN BURSTING NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD SOON BE
OCCURRING THERE.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT... MAKING
STAN A TROPICAL STORM ONCE AGAIN.
 
THE AIRCRAFT LOCATED THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION... AND THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION
IS NOW WESTWARD... 270/9.  A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TEXAS
TO THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER STAN TOWARD THE WEST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... WITH AN EVENTUAL SLIGHT BEND SOUTH
OF WEST AND A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED.  MOST OF THE MODELS
INDICATE THAT ENOUGH RIDGING WILL PERSIST TO TAKE STAN ALL THE WAY
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  HOWEVER... IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
COMPLICATING FACTORS... INCLUDING INTERACTION WITH HIGH TERRAIN AS
STAN APPROACHES THE COAST... A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC... AND LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... COULD CAUSE A SLOWER MOTION THAN
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT DUE TO THE
INITIAL POSITION.
 
STAN IS NOW OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO... AND IS BENEATH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AS DEPICTED
IN GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO STRENGTHENING.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
TO DIVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 48 HOURS AND ERODE
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...BUT THE SHEAR WILL PROBABLY NOT INCREASE IN
TIME TO WEAKEN STAN BEFORE FINAL LANDFALL.  ACCORDINGLY THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE DIAGNOSES WEAK SHEAR AND FORECASTS A 65 KT HURRICANE
APPROACHING THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO SHIPS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
THE NEW FORECAST REQUIRES A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF
COAST OF MEXICO.
 
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0900Z 20.5N  91.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     03/1800Z 20.5N  92.9W    40 KT
 24HR VT     04/0600Z 20.4N  94.2W    50 KT
 36HR VT     04/1800Z 20.2N  95.2W    60 KT
 48HR VT     05/0600Z 20.0N  96.3W    70 KT
 72HR VT     06/0600Z 19.5N  97.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 03-Oct-2005 09:10:12 UTC