Tropical Storm STAN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2005

STAN HAS JUST ABOUT COMPLETED ITS TRANSIT OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 
BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT...FOR NOW...
THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED TO JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. 
NONETHELESS...THE SYSTEM RETAINS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES.  A PROMINENT
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE IS SITUATED OVER STAN...AND VERTICAL SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ONCE THE
CENTER MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE SURFACE
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ALMOST 30 DEG C...STRENGTHENING IS HIGHLY
LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 285/9.  THE FLOW SOUTH OF A MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. 
THIS WOULD TAKE THE CENTER NEAR OR ACROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO IN
2-3 DAYS.  THERE IS...HOWEVER...A POTENTIAL COMPLICATION TO THE
TRACK FORECAST.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...AND INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID- TO LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WITHIN ROUGHLY 72
HOURS.  THIS DEVELOPMENT COULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE SOON ENOUGH TO
INFLUENCE STAN'S TRACK...AND DELAY ITS LANDFALL.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE MODELS ALSO TAKE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SLOWER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST GULF THAN THE EARLIER RUNS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT FASTER THAN MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE.  HOPEFULLY...AN ADDITIONAL SLOWING OF THIS FORECAST WILL
NOT BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0300Z 20.8N  90.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     03/1200Z 21.0N  91.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     04/0000Z 21.0N  93.3W    45 KT
 36HR VT     04/1200Z 20.7N  94.7W    55 KT
 48HR VT     05/0000Z 20.4N  95.8W    65 KT
 72HR VT     06/0000Z 20.0N  97.0W    55 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     07/0000Z 19.5N  98.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATED
120HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
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