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Hurricane NATE


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005
 
A COMBINATION OF STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
AIR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN NATE.  ALL OF THE LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION
IS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE WITH AN EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE FALLING AS QUICKLY
AS THE RULES ALLOW AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 55
KT....WHICH COULD BE A BIT GENEROUS.  SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE
HIGH... MOSTLY 25 KT OR GREATER... DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
WHICH SHOULD INDUCE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING.  IN ADDITION...NATE WILL
BE CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...ACCELERATING THE
TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND 36 HOURS.  

NATE IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 075/21. THE
CYCLONE EXPECTED TO WHIP AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF MARIA FOR ABOUT
36 HOURS... THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LARGE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.  THE GFS MODEL
KEEPS NATE SEPARATE FROM THE TROUGH FOR ABOUT 3 DAYS BEFORE
BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE LARGER CIRCULATION... AS DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  
 
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/2100Z 34.8N  52.1W    55 KT
 12HR VT     10/0600Z 35.3N  48.3W    45 KT
 24HR VT     10/1800Z 36.0N  44.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     11/0600Z 37.5N  39.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     11/1800Z 40.5N  35.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     12/1800Z 50.0N  26.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 09-Sep-2005 20:40:10 UTC