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Hurricane NATE
ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A 20 NM...RAGGED EYE WHICH
APPEARS TO BE OPEN ON THE EAST SIDE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
DRY AIR IS BEING PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTH. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AS DOES THE INITIAL INTENSITY. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
REACH THE HURRICANE AROUND 6Z TONIGHT. A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR INTENSIFICATION EXISTS BEFORE THE UPPER WESTERLIES
MOVE OVER THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST.
INITIAL MOTION IS 040/5. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PRESENTLY
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
MID-LATITUDE FEATURE SHOULD HELP TO ESTABLISH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NATE NORTHEASTWARD AND
THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE LATEST GFS RUN SUGGESTS THAT NATE WILL
BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF MARIA WITHIN ABOUT 60
HOURS...WHILE THE UKMET INDICATES BINARY INTERACTION WITH MARIA
NEAR DAY 4...ULTIMATELY MERGING INTO A VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL
SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ALL OTHER GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE CONU MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS FORECAST KEEPS
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF BERMUDA...HOWEVER...SHOULD
NATE MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH THAN EXPECTED...A SHORT-FUSED HURRICANE
WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED.
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/0300Z 29.8N 65.4W 75 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 30.6N 64.5W 80 KT
24HR VT 09/0000Z 31.9N 62.2W 75 KT
36HR VT 09/1200Z 33.4N 58.8W 75 KT
48HR VT 10/0000Z 35.1N 54.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 11/0000Z 38.0N 43.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 12/0000Z 42.0N 32.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/0000Z 46.0N 21.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
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