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Hurricane DENNIS


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005
 
RECONNAISSANCE WIND AND PRESSURE DATA...AS WELL AS SATELLITE
IMAGERY...INDICATE THAT THE EARLIER INTENSIFICATION TREND HAS
CEASED.  MOST RECENT ESTIMATED PRESSURE WAS 930 MB...AND THE
HIGHEST RECENT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 131 KT.  BASED ON THESE
OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 120 KT. 
ALTHOUGH DENNIS IS NOW MOVING OVER WATERS OF SOMEWHAT LOWER HEAT
CONTENT...IT IS MOVING RAPIDLY ENOUGH THAT ONLY MODEST CHANGES IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL.  DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL NEAR THE THRESHOLD BETWEEN SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORIES THREE
AND FOUR.

AFTER AN EARLIER NORTHWARD WOBBLE...DENNIS IS NOW BACK ON A
NORTH-NORTHWEST HEADING...340 DEGREES...BUT AT A FASTER FORWARD
SPEED.  THIS MOVES THE TIMING OF LANDFALL UP A FEW HOURS...TO
MID-AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE A COUPLE 
HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED ABOUT 30 MILES TO THE EAST AS A RESULT OF THE EARLIER
NORTHWARD JOG...AND LIES ON THE RIGHT-HAND SIDE OF A TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE
REMNANTS OF THE HURRICANE ARE EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE VICINITY OF
THE OHIO VALLEY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/1500Z 29.4N  86.7W   120 KT
 12HR VT     11/0000Z 31.5N  87.8W    85 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     11/1200Z 33.9N  88.8W    50 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     12/0000Z 35.8N  89.3W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     12/1200Z 37.5N  89.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     13/1200Z 38.5N  88.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     14/1200Z 39.0N  86.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     15/1200Z 39.0N  86.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Sunday, 10-Jul-2005 15:10:02 UTC