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Hurricane DENNIS


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005
 
AFTER DEEPENING AT A RATE THAT BORDERED ON INSANE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...DENNIS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AT A MORE NORMAL
RATE THIS EVENING.  REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 941
MB...WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 122 KT IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 110 KT.  IT IS
EXPECTED THAT WHEN THE AIRCRAFT AGAIN SAMPLES THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL
THAT IT WILL FIND STRONGER WINDS THAT WILL JUSTIFY UPGRADING DENNIS
TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ALTHOUGH
DENNIS HAS A VERY LARGE OUTER WIND FIELD... THE HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER.

THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  DENNIS IN ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND EAST OF A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ARKANSAS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
TO JUST OFF THE TEXAS COAST.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD KEEP DENNIS
ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR AT
LEAST 2 DAYS...WITH THIS MOTION BRINGING THE STORM INLAND ON
SUNDAY.  TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN CALLING FOR
LANDFALL IN THE PENSACOLA FLORIDA-PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI AREA...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE
CLUSTER JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  AFTER
LANDFALL...DENNIS SHOULD SLOW AND GRADUALLY RECURVE INTO THE
WESTERLIES OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.
 
THE COMBINATION OF TIGHT INNER CORE...GOOD TO EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND
COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS SUGGESTS THAT DENNIS HAS NOT YET FINISHED
STRENGTHENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO
REACH 120 KT IN 12 HR.  AFTER THAT...CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE DRY AIR INTRUSION AND POSSIBLY INCREASING SHEAR
WILL LIKELY END STRENGTHENING.  DENNIS WILL WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL
AND EVENTUALLY BECOME A LOW PRESSURE AREA.
 
34 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT HAVE BEEN REVISED OUTWARD
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AT KEY WEST.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0300Z 26.6N  85.3W   110 KT
 12HR VT     10/1200Z 28.2N  86.6W   120 KT
 24HR VT     11/0000Z 30.6N  87.9W   120 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     11/1200Z 32.9N  89.0W    65 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     12/0000Z 34.8N  89.8W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     13/0000Z 37.5N  89.0W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     14/0000Z 38.0N  86.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     15/0000Z 38.5N  82.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Sunday, 10-Jul-2005 03:10:02 UTC