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Hurricane DENNIS


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2005
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION AND AN
EYE HAS BEEN OBSERVED INTERMITTENTLY ON IR IMAGES. THE OUTFLOW
CONTINUES TO BE WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IT IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THIS IS NOT VERY COMMON
FOR CYCLONES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...DUE TO COMMON INTERACTION
WITH THE MID-OCEANIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
WEAKER THAN NORMAL. T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 AND 5.0 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED 87 KNOTS AT
FLIGHT LEVEL AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 970 MB. BASED ON THIS
INFORMATION THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS.
DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE OCEAN IN THIS
REGION HAS A VERY HIGH HEAT CONTENT AND WITH THE PREVAILING LOW
WIND SHEAR...DENNIS COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 100 TO 105
KNOT WINDS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. THE LATEST
GFDL DOES NOT INTENSIFY DENNIS AS MUCH AS IN THE PREVIOUS
RUN BECAUSE IT KEEPS THE CIRCULATION OF THE HURRICANE OVER CUBA.
 
THE MOTION OF DENNIS CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/13
AND THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD...
ALLOWING THE HURRICANE TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...
BRINGING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS
AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0900Z 17.0N  74.6W    80 KT
 12HR VT     07/1800Z 18.1N  76.4W    85 KT
 24HR VT     08/0600Z 20.0N  79.0W   100 KT
 36HR VT     08/1800Z 21.6N  81.5W   105 KT
 48HR VT     09/0600Z 23.5N  83.5W   105 KT
 72HR VT     10/0600Z 27.5N  86.5W   105 KT
 96HR VT     11/0600Z 32.0N  88.5W    70 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     12/0600Z 36.1N  90.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 07-Jul-2005 08:55:02 UTC