Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression FOUR


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005
 
SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR OR OVER THE
CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND IN ALL QUADRANTS.
THERE IS NO SHEAR AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE SO A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
IS INDICATED...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND THE GFDL
MODELS. 

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OF 280 DEGREES
AT 15 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 3 DAYS..AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN
END OF THE RIDGE. A TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD THEN BEGIN.
THIS TRACK WOULD BRING THE SYSTEM OVER CUBA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO LATER IN THE PERIOD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHICH IN FACT...IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0900Z 12.6N  64.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     05/1800Z 13.2N  66.4W    40 KT
 24HR VT     06/0600Z 14.5N  69.5W    50 KT
 36HR VT     06/1800Z 16.5N  72.5W    60 KT
 48HR VT     07/0600Z 18.0N  75.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     08/0600Z 20.5N  79.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     09/0600Z 23.0N  82.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     10/0600Z 25.0N  84.0W    70 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 05-Jul-2005 09:10:01 UTC