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Tropical Weather Summary



000
ABPZ30 KNHC 011550
TWSEP 
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PST WED DEC 1 2004
 
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY WAS BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC IN 2004. THERE WERE 12 NAMED TROPICAL CYCLONES AND SIX OF
THESE BECAME HURRICANES. THE LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THIS BASIN ARE
16 NAMED TROPICAL CYCLONES AND 9 HURRICANES. THREE OF THE
HURRICANES REACHED CATEGORY 3 OR HIGHER INTENSITY ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. IN ADDITION...THERE WERE 4
TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS. NONE OF THE CYCLONES MADE LANDFALL AS A
TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE...AND THERE WERE NO REPORTS OF DEATHS
OR DAMAGE ATTRIBUTED TO TROPICAL CYCLONES. 

AGATHA ORIGINATED FROM AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT CROSSED
CENTRAL AMERICA ON 17 MAY AND MOVED WESTWARD FOR A FEW DAYS. THE
ORGANIZATION INCREASED AND THE SYSTEM BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EARLY ON THE 22ND ABOUT 500 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND BECAME A TROPICAL STORM LATER IN THE
DAY. THE STEERING CURRENTS COLLAPSED AND AGATHA BECAME NEARLY
STATIONARY.  BY THE 24TH...COOL WATERS AND DRIER AIR CAUSED THE
CYCLONE TO WEAKEN AND AGATHA BECAME A REMNANT LOW.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED
ACROSS THE COAST OF AFRICA ON 17 JUNE. THE WAVE MOVED WESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT 2 WEEKS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THE WAVE
DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 2 JULY ABOUT 650 N MI
SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAB LUCAS ON THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THE DEPRESSION MOVED QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD OVER
COOLER WATERS AND DEGENERATED INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LATE ON 3 JULY. THE REMNANT LOW DISSIPATED ON 5 JULY.

BLAS DEVELOPED ON 12 JULY ABOUT 245 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT CROSSED CENTRAL AMERICA ON 8 JULY. THE
DEPRESSION QUICKLY STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM.  BLAS MOVED
MOSTLY NORTHWESTWARD AND REACHED ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 55 KT ON
13 JULY.  THIS WAS A LARGE TROPICAL STORM WHICH...ALTHOUGH
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE...PRODUCED STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD...BLAS
WEAKENED BELOW STORM STRENGTH THE FOLLOWING DAY.  BY 15 JULY...THE
SYSTEM DEGENERATED TO A LARGE REMNANT LOW THAT PERSISTED OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE EAST PACIFIC FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

CELIA FORMED FROM A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED ACROSS THE
WEST COAST OF AFRICA ON 5 JULY.  THE WAVE MOVED WESTWARD
UNEVENTFULLY UNTIL IT SPAWNED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 19 JULY
ABOUT 540 N MI SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS. IT BECAME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER THAT SAME DAY. THE CYCLONE MOVED GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFIED INTO A HURRICANE ON 22
JULY ABOUT 740 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. CELIA
REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KT SHORTLY THEREAFTER BEFORE IT
BEGAN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND OVER COOLER WATERS. IT WEAKENED TO
A TROPICAL STORM ON 22 JULY...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 24
JULY...AND INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON 26 JULY.
THE CYCLONE EVENTUALLY DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN WAVE LATER THAT DAY
ABOUT 1050 N MI EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

DARBY DEVELOPED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS THE
COAST OF AFRICA ON 12 JULY.  THE WAVE REACHED THE EASTERN PACIFIC
ON 20 JULY AND FIRST SHOWED SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION ON 23 JULY.
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMED ON 26 JULY ABOUT 660 N MI
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS...AND MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AND STRENGTHENED TO A TROPICAL STORM THE NEXT DAY.  DARBY BECAME A
HURRICANE ON 28 JULY WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING AN
ESTIMATED 105 KT ON 29 JULY.  DARBY WAS THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC SINCE KENNA IN OCTOBER 2002.  DARBY TURNED
WESTWARD ON 30 JULY AS IT WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM...AND IT
WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION ON 31 JULY SHORTLY BEFORE IT ENTERED THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE BASIN.  THE DEPRESSION DISSIPATED
ON 1 AUGUST ABOUT 740 N MI EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WAS A SHORT-LIVED CYCLONE THAT FORMED
ABOUT 1100 N MI SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS ON 1 AUGUST. 
IT DISSIPATED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

ESTELLE FORMED FROM AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ABOUT 1400 N MI
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII ON 19 AUGUST.   ESTELLE STEADILY
INTENSIFIED AND BECAME A TROPICAL STORM ON 20 AUG...AND REACHED A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KT AS IT MOVED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON
THE 21ST.  THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE MOVE TOWARD THE WEST AND
WEST-SOUTHWEST AND WEAKENED.  ESTELLE BECAME A REMNANT LOW THAT
DISSIPATED ON 26 AUGUST SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS.  

FRANK DEVELOPED FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM EARL ABOUT 360 N MI SOUTH OF CABO SAN
LUCAS ON 23 AUGUST.  IT MOVED NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHENED
RAPIDLY...BECOMING A HURRICANE LATER THAT DAY.  IT REACHED ITS PEAK
INTENSITY OF 75 KT ON THE 24TH BEFORE WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS
AS IT TURNED WESTWARD.  THE CYCLONE DEGENERATED TO A REMNANT LOW ON
THE 26TH.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DEVELOPED ABOUT 850 N MI WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF CABO SAN LUCAS ON 23 AUGUST.  IT MOVED GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE TURNING TO THE WEST AND
DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW ON THE 26TH.  THE LOW DISSIPATED ON
28 AUGUST ABOUT 950 N MI EAST OF HILO HAWAII.

GEORGETTE FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE ON 26 AUGUST ABOUT 300 N MI
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO.  IT MOVED ON A CLIMATOLOGICAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR A FEW DAYS...REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 55 KT ON THE 27TH.  A COUPLE OF DAYS LATER...IT WEAKENED OVER
COOLER WATERS.  BLAS BECAME A REMNANT LOW ON THE 30TH ABOUT 800 N
MI WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS.

HOWARD FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT ENTERED THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC ON 26 AUGUST. THE WAVE SPAWNED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 30
AUGUST ABOUT 350 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...THE CYCLONE BECAME A TROPICAL STORM ON 31
AUGUST AND A HURRICANE ON 1 SEPTEMBER. HOWARD TURNED NORTHWESTWARD
ON 2 SEPTEMBER AS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REACHED AN ESTIMATED 120
KT. HOWARD BEGAN WEAKENING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON
3 AUGUST. IT WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON 4 AUGUST AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THE NEXT DAY. THE CYCLONE WEAKENED TO A
NON-CONVECTIVE LOW LATE ON 5 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 230 N MI
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO. THE REMNANT LOW COULD BE
TRACKED UNTIL 10 SEPTEMBER.

ISIS FORMED AS A DEPRESSION ON 8 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 460 N MI SOUTH OF
CABO SAN LUCAS. THE DEPRESSION MOVED WESTWARD AND BECAME A TROPICAL
STORM LATER THAT DAY AS IT TURNED TO THE NORTHWEST. STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR PREVENTED ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND ON 10
SEPTEMBER ISIS LOST ITS DEEP CONVECTION...TURNED WESTWARD...AND
WEAKENED BACK TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. EASTERLY SHEAR BEGAN TO
DIMINISH...AND ISIS REGAINED TROPICAL STORM STATUS ON 12 SEPTEMBER
WHEN IT WAS ABOUT 725 N MI WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. ISIS
CONTINUED GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THREE DAYS...GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING...AND BRIEFLY MAINTAINED HURRICANE INTENSITY WHILE
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ON 15 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 1260 N MI WEST OF CABO
SAN LUCAS. ISIS HAD MOVED OVER COOL WATERS WHEN STEERING CURRENTS
COLLAPSED ON 15 SEPTEMBER. ISIS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WHILE WEAKENING...AND THE CYCLONE DEGENERATED TO A REMNANT
LOW ON 16 SEPTEMBER. 

JAVIER FORMED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 10 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 300 N
MI SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE DEPRESSION MOVED BETWEEN
THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AND BECAME A TROPICAL STORM ON THE
11TH.  IT REACHED HURRICANE STATUS ON THE 12TH.  THEREAFTER...JAVIER
TURNED TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY...REACHING ITS PEAK
INTENSITY OF 130 KT ON THE 14TH ABOUT 220 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO.  JAVIER TURNED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH
TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA...BUT IT MOVED VERY SLOWLY OVER COOLER WATERS
AND WEAKENED.  JAVIER REACHED THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
BETWEEN CABO SAN LAZARO AND PUNTA ABREOJOS ON 19 SEPTEMBER AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND MOVED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SEA OF
CORTES.  JAVIER DISSIPATED LATER THAT DAY BUT ITS MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.       

KAY WAS A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT FORMED LATE ON 4 OCTOBER
ABOUT 515 N MI SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION 
STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM KAY EARLY ON 5 OCTOBER AS IT
MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. EARLY ON 6 OCTOBER...KAY TURNED
NORTHWESTWARD AND WEAKENED BACK TO A DEPRESSION UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE DEGENERATED TO A
SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS LATER THAT DAY.

LESTER DEVELOPED ON 11 OCTOBER ABOUT 80 N MI SOUTH OF PUERTO
ESCONDIDO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION MOVED SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
PARALLELING THE MEXICAN COAST...AND BECAME A TROPICAL STORM LATE ON
12 OCTOBER WHILE LOCATED ABOUT 65 N MI SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO.
LESTER REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KT AS IT PASSED JUST SOUTH
OF ACAPULCO EARLY ON 13 OCTOBER. THEN...THE INTERACTION WITH BOTH
LAND AND A LARGER LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST BEGAN TO
WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. LESTER WEAKENED BACK TO A DEPRESSION AND WAS
ABSORBED BY THE LARGER LOW LATER ON 13 OCTOBER. LESTER PRODUCED
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-5 INCHES TO PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL AREAS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO...BUT NO
REPORTS OF CASUALTIES OR DAMAGE WERE RECEIVED.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS A SHORT-LIVED CYCLONE THAT
DEVELOPED ABOUT 230 N MI SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO EARLY ON 25
OCTOBER.  THE DEPRESSION MOVED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...AND MADE
LANDFALL ON THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR ALTATA EARLY ON
26 OCTOBER.  IT DISSIPATED INLAND SHORTLY THEREAFTER.  MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS...
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINALL OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO...
WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.


SUMMARY TABLE -  2004

NAME              DATES          MAX WIND-KT          DEATHS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
AGATHA           22-24 MAY           50                 0
TD TWO-E         2-3 JUL             30                 0
TS BLAS          12-15 JUL           55                 0
H CELIA          19-25 JUL           75                 0
H DARBY          26 JUL-1 AUG       105                 0
TD SIX-E         1 AUG               25                 0
TS ESTELLE       19-26 AUG           60                 0
H FRANK          23-26 AUG           75                 0
TD NINE-E        23-26 AUG           30                 0
TS GEORGETTE     26-30 AUG           55                 0 
H  HOWARD        30 AUG- 5 SEP      120                 0
H  ISIS          8-16 SEP            65                 0
H  JAVIER        11-19 SEP          130                 0
TS KAY           4-6  OCT            40                 0
TS LESTER        11-13 OCT           45                 0
TD SIXTEEN-E     25-26 OCT           30                 0
-------------------------------------------------------------------
NOTE: DATES ARE BASED ON UNIVERSAL COORDINATED TIME...UTC

FORECASTER AVILA/BEVEN/FRANKLIN/LAWRENCE/PASCH/STEWART

$$



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 01-Dec-2004 17:24:08 UTC